The point estimate hides uncertainty
Two runs can return similar numbers while providing different information about statistical precision.
certmc accompanies the supported estimate with a confidence interval and its stated coverage assumptions.
FORGE15 / 14 / PROBABILITY & COUNTINGThe full offering
certmc.
Monte Carlo estimation with an explicitly stated confidence interval for supported statistical models.
Discuss certmcCustomer outcomeDesign and discover ↗
THE PRODUCT, IN PRACTICE
An estimate is useful
when its uncertainty is visible.
A sampled estimate without an uncertainty statement is difficult to use in quantitative review. certmc produces a supported Monte Carlo result together with a confidence interval under specified assumptions. The customer can evaluate the precision being purchased and the computational work it requires, rather than accepting a point estimate simply because many paths were simulated.
- BUILT FOR
- Quantitative model-validation and Monte Carlo research teams.
CHALLENGES → PRODUCT RESPONSEThe problem you face.
The problem you face.
What certmc changes.
Stronger precision consumes work
A requested interval width and confidence target can require more computation than a conventional estimate.
The evaluation ties the numerical precision requirement to the path budget and total execution cost.
A model check is mistaken for a market guarantee
Matching a known analytical example does not make the underlying market assumptions true.
The result is assessed against reference cases and the supplied statistical model, with model validity kept separate from the interval calculation.
WHAT YOU GETA defined capability.
A defined capability.
A useful output.
The product scope below describes the capability and outputs to confirm for your release. Custom integration, operated delivery and additional engineering are separately agreed.
A sampled estimate
The result of the supported Monte Carlo computation.
A confidence interval
An explicit uncertainty interval under the declared assumptions.
A reference-check path
Comparison with known answers on supported qualification cases.
A precision/cost contract
The requested statistical settings and computation limits for the workload.
AVAILABLE NOWOne product.
One product.
Three ways to work.
certmc is fully available with CLI, MCP and headless access. Use the interface that fits your terminal, your agents or your automated workflow.
For your terminal.
Run the product from a terminal or script, alongside the tools your team already uses.
Get CLI accessFor your agents.
Connect MCP-compatible clients and agents to the product’s exposed capabilities.
Get MCP accessFor your workflows.
Operate without a graphical interface in unattended, scheduled or pipeline-driven work.
Set up headless accessProduct-specific inputs, hardware requirements and result guarantees still apply. An access mode does not change your license or deployment scope.
Explore all product interfacesEXAMPLE CUSTOMER WORKFLOW
Assess a supported pricing simulation
A quantitative team needs an estimate with an agreed uncertainty target for a model that has a reference test case.
Illustrative use of the supported scope, not a customer case study or a measured result.- 01
Specify the supported model, confidence assumptions and precision target.
- 02
Run the simulation and obtain the estimate and interval.
- 03
Inspect reference agreement and the cost required to reach the target precision.
IN YOUR WORKFLOWStart with your task.
Start with your task.
Agree the useful outcome.
Quantitative model-validation and Monte Carlo research teams.
- What you bring
- The supported statistical model, sampling conditions, confidence level, interval-width requirement and compute budget.
- What a useful evaluation measures
- Interval behavior under the declared assumptions
- Agreement on known reference cases
- Compute required for the target precision
- Where it fits
- Use the selected product in a qualified customer environment, or agree a defined implementation with SpinForge. A hosted or managed service is quoted for its actual operating responsibilities; it is not automatically included with software access.
QUESTIONS BEFORE YOU BUYA clear scope.
A clear scope.
No hidden assumptions.
How can we use certmc?
CLI, MCP and headless access are all available. Run from a terminal or script, connect an MCP-compatible client, or use the product without a graphical interface. Choose the mode during onboarding and receive its setup instructions. Runtime requirements and supported operations remain product-specific.
What is the important product boundary?
Confidence coverage is probabilistic, not certainty that every interval contains the truth. The reported one-billion-path Black–Scholes comparison is one model test, not financial advice or a guarantee of real-world valuation accuracy.
What comes with the selected license?
The agreed certmc release, its supported interfaces and outputs, the applicable checks and the support stated in your order. The plan defines users, workflow, environment and capacity. Source-code transfer, unrestricted redistribution and bespoke engineering are not automatically included.
Can SpinForge implement or operate it for us?
Request a scoped engineering or operated-service proposal. It identifies what our team delivers, where the workload runs, infrastructure costs, acceptance requirements and ongoing support. Your software subscription alone does not activate a hosted runtime.
Explore engineeringWhat evidence is available for review?
P41 / Company-reported. The reported one-billion-path interval included the Black–Scholes reference price. Achieving the stated certified interval required about four times the paths of the ordinary interval at the same width in that study.
These descriptions come from the supplied product and campaign material. Website checks are not an independent rerun of the engine. Qualification identifies the actual release, workload and available artifacts.
Read the evidence summarySOFTWARE / OPERATED DELIVERYBy proposal
Customer-hosted access and a service operated by SpinForge are different scopes. Confirm the release, deployment and included support before activation.
Plans & deliveryPUT CERTMC TO WORK
Tell us what needs to improve.
Bring a representative workload and the result your team needs. We’ll define the product, deployment and engineering scope around that task.
Related products, workflows and system connections +
ONE PLATFORM / OR A DIRECT PURCHASEChecked Decisions
Checked Decisions
with certmc.
Activate this capability inside a qualified checked decisions workflow. Compatible methods and required shared checking are included once within that workflow; the product remains independently purchasable.
Capacity, release, environment, result contract and operating responsibilities are specified before activation. Choosing an additional method is not permission to add an unrelated workload or unqualified deployment.
Explore Checked Decisions Choose workflow capacityFROM PRODUCT TO CUSTOMER WORKFLOWA useful outcome.
Explore decision programs A useful outcome.
A defined delivery.
Commission the model, integration and acceptance work needed for your task. Existing products stay independently available.
START WITH THIS PRODUCT
Use the software directly or ask us to scope the implementation.